Designing Resource-Bounded Reasoners using Bayesian Networks: System Health Monitoring and Diagnosis

In this work we are concerned with the conceptual design of large-scale diagnostic and health management systems that use Bayesian networks. While they are potentially powerful, improperly designed Bayesian networks can result in too high memory requirements or too long inference times, to they point where they may not be acceptable for real-time diagnosis and health management in resource-bounded systems such as NASA's aerospace vehicles. We investigate the clique tree clustering approach to Bayesian network inference, where increasing the size and connectivity of a Bayesian network typically also increases clique tree size. This paper combines techniques for analytically characterizing clique tree growth with bounds on clique tree size imposed by resource constraints, thereby aiding the design and optimization of largescale Bayesian networks in resource-bounded systems. We provide both theoretical and experimental results, and illustrate our approach using a NASA case study.